How Sealed Verdict works
This page explains where our numbers come from, what they mean, and what they do not mean.
You can read it from top to bottom, or jump to the part you need. Each heading is a question. The answer is directly underneath it.
What does this site do?
Sealed Verdict tells you what is inside a sealed Magic product and what it is likely to be worth. For each box, bundle or pack we show the estimated value of the cards inside, the most valuable cards you could open and how often they turn up, and how much the value changes from pack to pack. Enter the price you are being asked, and we show your chance of opening a card worth more than that, and whether opening the box is likely to beat keeping it sealed.
Does this site tell me whether to buy something?
Not directly. Whether a product is a good buy depends on things we cannot know about you. One person wants cards to play with. One opens packs because it is fun. One is buying a gift. A price that is too high for one person is fine for another.
What we do tell you is narrower. When you enter what you are paying, the Sealed Verdict says whether the cards inside are likely to be worth clearly more than that price. That is a statement about money only. Whether to buy is still your call.
What is "expected value"?
Expected value is the average worth of the cards inside a pack or box.
Here is how we work it out. We take every card that can be pulled from that set. We look up what each card sells for. We work out how likely each card is to appear, based on the published rules for how packs are filled. Then we combine those into an average.
The word "average" is doing a lot of work here. Please read the next section.
Why did my pack not contain the average?
Because almost no pack does.
Imagine a box where 99 packs contain $3 of cards and 1 pack contains $300. The average across those 100 packs is about $6. But if you buy one pack, you will almost certainly get the $3 one.
Expected value works the same way. A small number of very expensive cards pull the average up. Most packs you open will be worth noticeably less than the average. A few will be worth much more.
This means expected value tells you what a large number of packs is worth. It does not predict what your pack is worth. If you are buying one or two packs, treat the number as background information, not a forecast.
What is the difference between the estimated full value and the estimated sell price?
You will see two figures. Here is what each one means.
Estimated full value (theoretical) is what the cards are worth at their listed prices.
Estimated sell price (realised) is what you would actually get if you sold them. It is the estimated full value minus 15%.
We subtract 15% because selling cards is not free or instant. You pay fees, you post things, you accept slightly less than the listed price to make a sale, and some cards sit unsold for a long time. The 15% is our estimate of that friction.
We show the estimated sell price as the main number because it is closer to what actually happens.
Why don't you show shop prices?
Prices change from day to day and from shop to shop. We can't check every shop, but you can - you are looking at the price. So we ask you for it. We work out everything else from what is inside the pack.
What price should I enter?
Enter what you would pay, including any shipping. Choose "One pack" if your price is for a single booster. Choose "Whole box" or "Whole bundle" if your price is for the whole product. We divide that price by the number of packs inside, so every figure on the page is per pack.
Is my price saved?
No. Your price stays in your browser. It is not stored, and it is not sent to us.
How do you work out my chance of beating my price?
For every card that can appear in each part of a pack, we know two things: what it is worth, and how likely it is to appear. From that we work out the chance that one pack contains at least one card worth your price or more.
This counts single cards only. A pack can also be worth more than you paid because several smaller cards add up. So your real chance is a little higher than the number we show.
How do you decide the Sealed Verdict?
We compare what you pay for the whole box or bundle with the estimated sell price of all the cards inside.
- If the cards are worth at least 20% more than you paid, the verdict is "Open for singles".
- If not, the verdict is "Keep sealed".
We do not show a verdict until you enter a price.
This call is about money only. If you want to open packs because opening packs is enjoyable, that is a completely valid reason and this number has nothing useful to say about it.
What is this site not good at?
We would rather tell you this up front than have you find out later.
Some product types have no expected value yet. Collector Boosters, Set Boosters and Jumpstart Boosters are filled using complicated rules that change from set to set. We have not modelled them yet. For those products you will see "not yet modelled" rather than a number. We would rather show nothing than show a made-up figure.
Card values are US market prices converted to Australian dollars. Local singles prices can be higher or lower.
Expected value ignores what you personally want. A box full of expensive cards for a format you do not play is not valuable to you, whatever the maths says.
We are new. This site has not been running long enough to have a long track record. Judge us on whether the numbers hold up over time, not on our say-so.
Do you count cards that cannot actually be pulled from a pack?
No, and this matters more than it sounds.
Some very expensive cards exist for a set but cannot be found in a normal booster pack. They come from tournament prizes, special promotions, or limited print runs. If you counted those, the expected value would look far higher than anything a real buyer could achieve.
We filter them out before doing the maths. If a card cannot come out of the pack you are buying, it does not count towards that pack's value.
Where do the card prices come from?
Card prices and set information come from Scryfall, a public Magic card database. The exchange rate comes from a public currency service and is updated hourly. Every card we show links back to a public price page, so you can check any number yourself.
What is reprint risk?
Reprint risk is a score from 0 to 100. It estimates how likely it is that the expensive cards in a set will be printed again soon.
This matters because a reprint usually makes a card cheaper. If you are holding a sealed box hoping it gains value, a reprint works against you.
We base the score on four things: what kind of set it is, how long since those cards were last printed, whether people are actively playing with them, and how old the product is.
It is an estimate, not inside knowledge. We do not know what Wizards of the Coast plans to print.
Who is this site for?
It is for people in Australia who buy sealed Magic product and want to know what they are getting before they spend.
That includes players buying a box to draft with, people who enjoy opening packs, collectors, and anyone who has ever stood in a shop wondering whether $250 is a fair price.
A note on speculation. We show what things are worth. That information can be used by someone buying to resell. We are aware of this. We have made specific choices to avoid being a speculation tool: we do not predict future prices, we do not tell you what to buy, we do not flag products as investments, and we do not track scarcity in a way that would help anyone corner supply. What we do is tell an ordinary buyer what is in the box and what it is likely to be worth. If that seems useful to you, the site is for you.
Who runs this site?
Sealed Verdict is run by Sidebyte Labs, a trading name of Symposia Co Pty Ltd (ABN 19 699 627 702), an Australian company.
We are a small operation, not a large one. We are not owned by a card shop, a distributor, or a marketplace. Nobody pays us to recommend a product, and we do not earn a commission when you buy something.
You should not have to take our word for any of our numbers. Card prices link to a public source. Our method is written on this page in full. If a number looks wrong, check it, and tell us.
How do I tell you something is wrong?
Email hello@sealedverdict.com.au.
We especially want to hear about: a card value that looks wrong or out of date, a card being counted that cannot really be pulled, and anything on the site you found confusing or hard to read.
You will not be dismissed for asking a basic question. If something here was unclear, that is a problem with our writing, not with you.
Last updated: 23 October 2026